Patience is a Virtue

It has been a while since my last Nats-related post. Many blogs devoted to the team far surpass, in frequency, my own meager contributions. However, despite the winter lag, there has been promising news for the organization.

First and foremost, the selection of Manny Acta as the new manager should bring exuberance and optimism to a young team who will most likely endure further growing pains as the new ownership builds. The club goes from having the oldest manager in baseball in Frank Robinson, 71 in 2006, to now having the youngest (Acta will be 38 at the start of Spring Training in 2007).

Many fans on message boards and blogs use the term “re-building” when describing the overall philosophy that the new owners have toward the club. As a financial disaster in Montreal, talent was often purged by then-GM Omar Minaya, now GM for the New York Mets. To keep the team financially afloat, MLB, who then owned and operated the fledgling club, saw to a penny-pinching tactics that often including the trading of talent. Much to the ulcer-inducing contemplation of Nats fans, players such as Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Jason Bay were once in the Expos farm system, amongst others.

As such, when the Montreal Expos became the Washington Nationals, the Nats inherited that depleted minor league system.

A strong minor league pool of talent helps the major league team in two primary ways: it provides the team extra leverage in a trade, and it keeps the team from the two words every GM and owner hate; free agency.

Even mediocre, aging players can earn millions of dollars when they become apart of the open market.

This presents clear problems to payroll. If a team spends free agency money on, say, three to five players, half of the team’s overall payroll could be allocated to those select players. It is by no means an optimal course of action in fiscal management. Take the Yankees, for example. Because of their league leading payroll, around $200 million, the Yankees were forced to pay a $26 million luxury tax (the Nats 2007 payroll has an on-going estimate of about $30-$40 million).

$26 million wasted. The Yankees weren’t even able to contend in the ALCS, let alone win a World Series, which is what Yankees owner George Steinbrenner has in mind when spending so much money. Was it worth it?

Now, the Yankees are an extreme example. However, they represent what can go wrong when teams buy players at free agency prices.

The term re-building implies a somewhat self-sustaining structure (one that includes a solid foundation) that needs a small number of additions to make it completely whole. The Nats foundation, their farm system, is one of the worst in baseball. They are not in a re-building process; they are in a building-up process. I bring up a subtle disagreement on lexicon, but a necessary one as they create two different scenarios. Without a solid foundation, your structure will never stand strong. That’s the first line in the textbook used in Architecture 101. The Nats need to first establish a foundation for the major league team.

So, the Nats have remained relatively quiet during the free agency period. This is sound wisdom on the part of the newly awarded ownership, under the day-to-day command of Stan Kasten, who went through a similar process with the Atlanta Braves

One of the biggest, and most surprising, moves over the winter came with the dealing of veteran 2B Jose Vidro, 32, to the Seattle Mariners for two promising players: Chris Snelling, 25, and Emiliano Fruto, 22. In addition, the Mariners (for reasons beyond me) agreed to pay $12 million of the $16 million existing on the aging Vidro’s contract.

It’s wonderful move. For the Nationals. Deal an aging, expensive player for two young, cheaper prospects. This is, in essence, the direction that the Nats will take the organization over the next few years. It’s a two handed challenge: on one hand you need to keep the team’s payroll under inflation-control as much as possible without sacrificing the team’s overall respectability in play, and on the other you need to bring in young talent, giving them an opportunity to prove their muster. The two do go hand in hand—but it requires patience and determination.

The Nats have that patience and determination. They know the financial system in which they operate, and will not allow it degenerate the long-term goals of building a winning ball club. Some fans have expressed concern at the Nationals for not staking a greater claim in the free agency market. I would be more concerned if the team started to do this. When the new ballpark opens in 2008, the Nats are projected to have one of the top five markets in all of baseball. However, just because you are a big market team doesn’t mean you have to spend (i.e. “waste”) money like a big market team. We don’t need a Yankees organization in the nation’s capital.

Who's got Left?????

The loss of Alfonso Soriano (now a Chicago Cub) to free agency gives the Nationals an opening in their roster for left field. I think the most obvious choice to replace Soriano is Ryan Church. But Church comes with apprehensive baggage.

The most recent example comes with his refusal to participate in Mexican winter ball, in which to improve his success with breaking pitches. In 2005 some felt Church did not display either the physical or mental toughness to allow his potential to come through.

Yet, he is by far the best option for the club.

Although he is no spring chicken, Church is 28 years old, which is considered relatively “young” in MLB years. In 196 at bats his numbers (OBP / SLG / AVG) were .353 /.466 /.287 . Although mindful that Soriano had 647 at bats in 2006 (.351 / .560 / .277), Church went toe-to-toe with Soriano in OBP and AVG.

Another option that the Nats have is to play Alex Escobar. In 87 at-bats: (.394 /.575 /.356).

Obviously, offensive numbers in 87 at-bats is in no way a strong prediction as to how that player’s numbers will evolve in 500+ opportunities. Despite this, Escobar has evident talent. That is clear.

However, he has severe trouble remaining healthy. After an in-game shoulder injury last August then-manager Frank Robinson said, “It's like he has a cloud hanging over his head, a negative force…I feel bad for him and I know he feels bad about this.”

100% health can never be guaranteed for any player, but no one should assume that Escobar can remain healthy throughout the 2007 season given his previous health-related concerns.

I would like to see Escobar in a CF platoon situation with Nook Logan, at least at the onset of the Spring Training and the regular season. New Manager Manny Acta said this about Logan shortly after the club announced that he would replace Robinson: "Logan played well during the month of September…Nook has a tool that never goes into a slump and that is speed, especially playing in spacious RFK Stadium. This team has not had a reliable center fielder the last three or four years. We are going to give him every opportunity to win the job."

From that, it appears that the club wants Logan to win the job outright with his performance, which does not attenuate my initial thoughts about a center field platoon.

There is no dispute that Logan needs to improve his offensive production, especially his OBP. His exceptional speed, in addition to making him an above-average defensive player, needs to be used on the base paths. Although Acta has admitted that he is not extremely aggressive with base stealing, no one denies that it is far more preferable to have speed on base as opposed to not. Whether or not any offensive improvements warrant a full-time position on the roster remains to be seen.

In addition, Kory Casto has impressed many in the organization, being named the club’s Minor League Player of the Year in two consecutive years. His 2006 numbers at AA Harrisonburg in 489 at bats were .379 /.468 /.272.

However, I think Casto should get ample playing time during Spring Training, but should start out in AAA Columbus. If at any point during the season there is an opening in either LF or CF, he should be called up.

There are many factors that will determine the opening day lineup. Many won’t occur until Spring Training, should the roster remain as it does currently.

However, of all the outfielders, excluding RF Austin Kearns, Ryan Church has had the most consistent success (which is slim in and of itself).

I think that Church’s talent potential, his relatively young age, and his inexpensive contract will make him quite valuable in the months and weeks leading up to the trade deadline of July 31. Church would be an expendable player knowing that Kory Casto would, presumably, improve in the minors. By giving him consistent playing time, his value will be maximized, giving the Nats a better chance of acquiring starting pitching or any other position that needs amelioration.

Obviously, coaches and personnel are going to have a better idea as to how these players fit into the club and its future. But by giving Ryan Church a consistent shot to test his metal, the club will most likely improve an eventual return on its investment.

Thoughts on Iraq

The removal of Donald Rumsfeld from the office of Secretary of Defense will interject new ideas and new policy to the Iraq war. The move, in step with the eventual release of findings by the Baker Institute and the Democratic “thumping” in the recent midterm congressional elections, shows that the environment in Iraq is at a disconnect with the goals of the Presidential administration and the public.

The midterm elections were a referendum on the Republican leadership. The underlying issue that seems to have generated the referendum-feel, and also an increase in voter turnout across the country, was not a national issue, but a foreign policy issue—The Iraq War.

But can Iraq be fixed? Can the hopes of the President that Iraq will be a peaceful, democratic bastion in a region as volatile as the Middle East?

Probably not. At least not in the near future.

A mistake that war planners at the Pentagon and Central Command (under now retired Gen. Tommy Franks) made was that they did not foresee the animosity that was to be unleashed, a virulence amongst Shiites and Sunnis, against one another, that Saddam Hussein repressed under dictatorial control. In fact, they had no substantive strategy for post-Saddam Iraq (referred to as Phase IV of the war plan). Thomas E. Ricks in his book, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq:

It wasn’t that there was no planning. To the contrary, there was a lot, with at least three groups inside the military and one at the State Department working on postwar issues and producing thousands of pages of documents. But much of the planning was shoddy, there was no one really in charge of it, and there was little coordination between the various groups (79).

The lack of significant preparation and adequate troop numbers caused Iraq to explode. Looting was widespread and difficult to control. In addition, the minimal number of troops allowed a free passing of select Iraqis into neighboring Syria (and would also be the impetus for Iraqi civilian abuse at the hands of U.S. soldiers, notably General Odierno’s 4th Infantry Division), some of whom would fund characters of insurgency. In addition, it is a prime violation of counterinsurgency warfare to allow a lax control of territorial borders (see Lt. Col. David Galula’s, French army, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice, a counterinsurgency “bible” despite its dated publication, 1938.)

Paul Bremer’s implication of de-baathification (removing all individuals once associated with Hussein’s party) and the abolishment of the Iraqi army effectively rooted insurgency in the already unstable country. Roughly half a million individuals were slighted, dishonored, and now without paychecks to support their families.

The current unemployment rate in Iraq is between 30%-70%, with notable percentage differences in various sections of the country. The creation of jobs in the country is essential. This will require extensive amounts of money. Perhaps Iraq’s neighbors, Syria and Iran, can help to build-up the fragile Iraq economy (both Syria and Iran have no need for a continuing unstable Iraq, which would cause an influx of refugees and could insight intra-religious violence amongst Muslims in their own countries).

In a recent article for Newsweek magazine, Fareed Zakaria puts forth this contemplation: “If you think that Iraq's tumult is a product of its culture, religion and history, ask yourself what the United States would look like after three years of 50 percent unemployment. Would there not be civil strife in Manhattan, Detroit, Los Angeles and New Orleans?”

There is one bright spot in Iraq, which is the growing economic strength of the Kurdistan region in the north. “While the government in Baghdad is still haggling over its petroleum law and violence wracks much of the country, the Kurds are about to pass their own oil law. They have already signed contracts with a handful of foreign oil companies, and they’re aggressively wooing more” (Fang, -style: italic;">U.S. News & World Report, Nov. 13, 2006). Fareed Zakaria further adds this notable characteristic: “…it is a Muslim region in the Arab world that wants to be part of the modern world, not blow it up.”

Iraq needs to find a way to allocate petroleum revenue to both Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias. This will generate much needed income if the new country is to grow.

However, the sustained violence curbs development in the country, and security is not at the levels it needs to be. This is the primary difficulty that the new Secretary of Defense will undertake. However, it is a pipedream to assume that U.S. forces can eliminate the sectarian violence in the country. The best hope that forces have is to keep the violence at minimal levels so the economy, based in oil revenue and employment-creation, can grow and become, at some level, self-sustaining without the aid of American troops.

I’m not quite sure how Americans view the situations in Iraq, nor do I comprehend their best wishes and intents (even their realistic goals) for that fragile country. But, we would be kidding ourselves to assume that a peaceful and a working democratic country will take form in the none-to-distant future. It will take many years, possibly generations, for a stable economy to emerge amongst sustained security and prevalent democracy.

However, there is no guarantee that this will happen.

Run, Barack. Run????

A few hundred people crowded onto the property of Virginia Union University in Richmond to participate in a rally for Virginia senatorial candidate Jim Webb. Sharing the stage with him were three of the most famous Virginia Democrats in the history of the Old Dominion: current Mayor Douglas Wilder, current Governor Tim Kaine, and former Governor (and a once hopeful presidential candidate) Mark Warner.

Despite the local stature of these individuals, it was a Democrat from Illinois that received the loudest cheers from the crowd: Sen. Barrack Obama.

I have heard a great deal about the Illinois Senator. He left his first nationwide impression during the last Democratic Convention where he gave a rousing speech. That speech inspired many to think that, perhaps, they were hearing a future President. If so, Obama would be the first African-American President of the United States.

I was surprised to see the Senator with a sense of meekness in the chilly, sunny autumn November. He, at times, seemed as though he was a bit overwhelmed with the attention he has been receiving of late. During the occasions when one of the local politicians would insinuate that Sen. Obama could be the “next President,” he would smile sheepishly, even once looking to the ground, made awkward with the crowd’s cheering.

Who can blame him? Within the past two years, he has moved from “high-level prospect” status in the Democratic Party to starting shortstop.

Yet, his humble demeanor did not derail is ability to inspire the crowd. Yes, he was among members of his own party, who are further electrified with leaders of their own party as Election Day is less than a week away. And yes, he himself is not running for election, but using his “star power” to elect a hopeful Democrat into the Senate. But that doesn’t guarantee that a politician can still electrify the crowd. His strong presence today did not come from an overt Type-A personality, but a genuine honesty and a relatable quality that makes him especially hard to dislike.

One of his best lines recanted the decision-making process he had when deciding to run for public office. He did the two things that every would-be politician does: he first prayed, and then asked his wife for permission. With a yes from both “almighty decision makers,” he decided to run for Senate.

Whereas Mark Warner comes across as a politician that you can like, Sen. Obama comes across as an individual that you like. There is a difference.

To prove this point, after the rally had ended, and the politicians onstage walked down the steps leading to the grounds of VUU, Senatorial candidate Jim Webb was easily and readily accessible for a handshake, picture, or autograph. However, the swarming crowd forced Senator Obama to return back up the stairs and into a VUU building to avoid those eager to meet him.

At one point, every news camera was inches away from Barrack Obama, with the rally’s spectators crowding the Illinois Senator with copies of his two most recent books for him to sign.

As I began my walk back to the Fan district of Richmond, I saw one man selling t-shirts and buttons that read “Obama for President.”

It’s hard to imagine not seeing more of those as 2008 approaches.

Op-Ed Piece

“Hey Congress, Where Ya’ At?”

The current presidential administration bears much of the blame that circulates regarding the Iraq War. The executive branch of the government must shoulder the responsibility of a wartime United States; our President is the country’s Commander in Chief.

However, the structure of the Constitution does not delegate full authority to the branch of the executive during times of war. The legislative branch shares its own authority, and thusly its own responsibility, as well.

The current congress (the 109th in U.S. history) has relinquished its own power of oversight when examining the actions and policy of the executive branch. Oversight enables Congress to examine how their legislation is carried out, in addition to “checking” and “balancing” the other two branches of government.

Under the Clinton administration, Congress formed an oversight process to investigate whether or not President Clinton had used his Christmas card list to petition possible campaign contributors. The Congress took in roughly 140 hours of testimony on the matter. Contrast this with the number of testimony-hours the current Congress took, 12 hours, when investigating the Abu-Ghraib abuse allegations.

The state of military involvement in Iraq has been given slighted attention. In June of this year, the Republican Congress began a debate to decide whether to enact formal resolution to “stay the course” over, the largely Democrat position to, “cut and run.” This debate was the first formal Congressional discussion on U.S. / Iraq military relations since 2002, when in October Congress voted the use of force in Iraq.

In addition to the lowered numbers of oversight discussions in the legislative branch (in the 60’s and 70’s Congress held a biannual average of 5,700 subcommittees, between 2003-2004, roughly 2,100) the current Presidential administration views oversight discussions as an annoyance, and unnecessary. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld begrudgingly attended an Armed Services Committee meeting in August of this year, only after Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-NY) turned Rumsfeld initial refusal into a favorable political issue for the Democrats.

Another example of how the current administration approaches oversight came in May of 2004. The Armed Services Committee, in light of the Abu-Ghraib scandal, asked Rumsfeld and various army personal about proper chain of command. When Rumsfeld was about to demonstrate the command, he was informed that one of his accompanying Generals neglected to bring a prepared chart for the committee to use as a visualization aid.

A lack of interaction between both branches may cause many to feel that it is necessary for opposing parties to control the executive and legislative branches separately. Competition is good for the political market. However, it does not need to come to this. Congress is an independent force in the American government, as is the Presidency. Both need to keep an “eye out” on the other. Had Congress been more vocal about oversight discussions, or more vocal about a lack of cooperation on the part of the Bush administration, perhaps the Iraq war would not be in the position we find it now. It is necessary for Congress to reinvigorate oversight to minimize failures and to better, and quickly, adapt to changing circumstances.

Former House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-TX) said, “You don’t need the [oversight] hearings” when one party controls both the executive and legislative branches of government. Hopefully, just as Rep. Delay, that ideology will be pushed out of Congress.

Washington Nationals Prospectus (as of october 2006)

As the inaugural season for the Washington Nationals drew to a close, many fans were filled with optimism. Although the first-year-Nats finished in last place in the NL East, their 81-81 record exceeded the expectations of most. As such, many viewed the 2006 club as a possible contender for the Wild Card, much as the 2005 team was up until the closing weeks of the season.

However, with the exception of a few players who engrossed fans with their play, this season was a disappointment.

One of the most exciting and hopeful pieces of news came off the field with MLB naming Ted Lerner, with his family and partners, as the autonomous owner of the Nationals. As such the team, which had been led through the dark under MLB ownership under the Expos/2005 Nats, had little to be hopeful for.

As GM of the Expos, Omar Minaya traded away young talent: Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Bay (amongst others). What was once a good farm system became barren under the financial limitations imposed on a club based in Montreal, Canada.

The inheritors of the Nationals were wisely aware of their new team’s limitations. President Stan Kasten, overseer of the Atlanta Braves success, expressed that “pumping” the MLB team with money will not make a long-term, consistent franchise. Instead, money will go towards a “building-up” of the franchise: personal, closer proximity of the AAA affiliate, the creation of a new A affiliate, etc.

What I would like to do is to glance around the diamond and look at what we might see in 2007 and beyond.

Starting Pitching: Starting pitching has hurt the Nationals most this season. Our starting squad has an ERA of 5.35 (second worst in front of the Kansas City Royals). No offense should have that burden.

With Livan Hernandez now in Arizona, our staff lacks a #1 starter. John Patterson will be back next year, as will Brian Lawrence (acquired in the Castilla trade with the Padres). Both Ramon Ortiz and Tony Armas Jr. are free agents after this year, whether or not they return will probably be based on how little money they will accept to return in light of disappointing years (5.40 and 5.22 ERA, respectively).

Those who have been called up from the minors throughout the season: Billy Traber (7.47 ERA), Mike O’Conner (4.72 ERA), and Shawn Hill (4.66 ERA) may still be given a shot to (re)prove themselves during Spring Training. The wonderful performance of Beltran Perez against the Braves recently also suggests that he will be considered for a starting role next season.

The “youngbloods” in the farms system: Colten Willems, Jhonny Nunez, Garret Mock, and Matt Chico (the latter two come from the Hernandez trade with Arizona) will probably not see consistent playing time until 2008.
Relief Pitching: This is one of the few upsides to the future team. With an improved Ryan Wagner, (from the eight-player trade with the Reds) who has changed mechanical foibles sustained in Cincinnati, the bullpen contains Jon Rauch, Saul Rivera, Roy Corcoran, Chris Schroder, Kevin Gryboski, Micah Bowie, Chad Cordero, and Luis Ayala. Rauch, Cordero, Ayala, and Wagner seem to be the more consistent relievers, but promising work by Rivera suggest that one of the better attributes of the club could also improve by next year.

Catcher: Brian Schneider has had a disappointing year. His average fluttered around .220-.230 for most of the season and his slugging percentage (.327) is below his 2005 performance (.409). However, since a post-game “blow-up” about a month or so back, he has brought his average back to .251. Most likely, this season was a “fluke” and we will probably see an improved and more consistent hitter next year.

Brandon Harper has become a promising back-up prospect. His numbers through thirty at-bats (.429 / .633 /.367) suggest consideration as a right-handed backup for the left-handed Schneider. He will most likely receive ample time to further prove himself in the spring.

Robert Fick, the primary backup catcher this season, seems to lack the defensive capabilities that Harper has. In addition, Fick is also a left-handed batter (Schneider usually sits when the team faces a southpaw—one would prefer to be able to send up a right-handed batter in his place, strengthening Harper as the lead candidate).

First Base: Nick Johnson leads the team in OBP (.430). This is his first year where he has not been side tailed with injuries, yielding quality numbers (23 homeruns, 77 RBI, 45 doubles, and 109 walks. His BB total is second only to Barry Bonds in the entire Major League and his 2B total makes him tied for seventh place in the entire Major League). Ideally, Johnson would serve offensive production better as the number two or three batter in the lineup with his high propensity to get on base and accumulate doubles. However, his SLG (.523) and AVG (.292) also make him a candidate to drive in runs, and not just comprise them.

Robert Fick can also play first base, which may be necessary should Johnson remain susceptible to injuries in 2007.

Middle Infield: This is somewhat problematic. The addition of Felipe Lopez, a young player with good batting attributes and speed, was an excellent acquisition. His OBP (.363) is the highest in his career. Lopez is not a “power-guy.” He needs to focus on improving his OBP further and strengthening his base-stealing skills. He very well could be our leadoff hitter in 2007.

Jose Vidro is a veteran of the Expos/Nationals organization. However, his aging knees have resulted in a poorer slugging percentage (under .400 for the first time since 1999) and a hampered range at second. His recent start at first-base suggests that the team might try to shop Vidro as a more flexible defensive player. In addition, his OBP and AVG (.345 and .286) are not poor numbers, which make his marketability slightly higher.

Cristian Guzman had a tremendously poor season last year (OBP / SLG / AVG = .260 /.314 /.219). In addition, Guzman is due to receive 4.2 million, making his marketability via trading very, very bleak. Because of Vidro’s relative healthiness, he is more marketable to trade despite his $7 million due next season, the last year of his contract.

If Guzman were to have a strong year next season, and it is only a possibility, but if so, he might kindle interest for a trade. This might be a way for the Nats to pick up additional young talent for a push for a strong, competitive team by 2008, or 2009 (which is Stan Kasten’s plan). This remains to be seen, however.

The signing of Dominican Esmailyn Gonzalez (16 years) will most likely trickle upwards from the farm system in 2008 or 2009, at the earliest.

Third Base: This is a no-brainer. Ryan Zimmerman leads all rookies in RBI (he will most likely surpass 100 by the season’s end) and is second in hits with runners in scoring position to David Wright of the Mets. His excellent glove and wisdom beyond his years (22 years) makes him a jewel of the organization. It would be foolish, and costly, for the organization to part with this player. With RISP Zimmerman is batting .311.

Outfield: Austin Kearns will most likely remain in RF. The baggage of Jose Guillen has most-likely soured management. In addition, Kearns is relatively young (will be 27 in 2007) and has shown sustained offensive improvement over the past two years.

I think it would be wise to try a batting order of 1) Felipe Lopez 2) Nick Johnson 3) Ryan Zimmerman 4) Austin Kearns

The trade to acquire Nook Logan does strengthen the outfield defensively. However, Logan’s offensive production does raise some concerns. Logan is not a power-hitter. He should utilize his great speed by improving his bunting and his OBP. When on base, he is a nuisance to pitchers. He needs to be on base more often.

I’m assuming that Alfonso Soriano will want about $12-15 million as a free agent. I will also assume that Stan Kasten, despite fan’s fondness for Alfonso, will choose to utilize the money that Soriano cost this year ($10 million) for other purposes (see introductory remarks).

This will leave a hole in LF. In 166 at-bats, Ryan Church has put up improved numbers over last year’s (.348 .453 .266). His power-potential makes me see him as a good number five batter. There are some defensive concerns (hence the trade for Logan in CF), but LF is a far less demanding position (hence Soriano in LF) and I think Church will perform well. In addition, there were reports of interested takers of Church before the September trade deadline. Church may be a very marketable player for an off-season trade.

Since being sent down to AAA, Marlon Byrd has posted good numbers (.363 / .465 / .271). Quite possibly he and Nook Logan will vie for the starting spot in CF next spring, with whoever loses the spot as the back-up outfielder.

Despite the poor performance (the Nationals are the fifth-worst team this year) the organization are in a better stance for the future then they were at the beginning of the 2006 season.

The hiring of Mike Rizzo as assistant GM will bring established scouting and organization to a team that needs it. The previous success of Stan Kasten in Atlanta should bring confidence to fans that we are in good, capable hands.

Over the next few years I believe that the team will improve greatly. It shall be immense fun to watch the process unfold.