Who's got Left?????

The loss of Alfonso Soriano (now a Chicago Cub) to free agency gives the Nationals an opening in their roster for left field. I think the most obvious choice to replace Soriano is Ryan Church. But Church comes with apprehensive baggage.

The most recent example comes with his refusal to participate in Mexican winter ball, in which to improve his success with breaking pitches. In 2005 some felt Church did not display either the physical or mental toughness to allow his potential to come through.

Yet, he is by far the best option for the club.

Although he is no spring chicken, Church is 28 years old, which is considered relatively “young” in MLB years. In 196 at bats his numbers (OBP / SLG / AVG) were .353 /.466 /.287 . Although mindful that Soriano had 647 at bats in 2006 (.351 / .560 / .277), Church went toe-to-toe with Soriano in OBP and AVG.

Another option that the Nats have is to play Alex Escobar. In 87 at-bats: (.394 /.575 /.356).

Obviously, offensive numbers in 87 at-bats is in no way a strong prediction as to how that player’s numbers will evolve in 500+ opportunities. Despite this, Escobar has evident talent. That is clear.

However, he has severe trouble remaining healthy. After an in-game shoulder injury last August then-manager Frank Robinson said, “It's like he has a cloud hanging over his head, a negative force…I feel bad for him and I know he feels bad about this.”

100% health can never be guaranteed for any player, but no one should assume that Escobar can remain healthy throughout the 2007 season given his previous health-related concerns.

I would like to see Escobar in a CF platoon situation with Nook Logan, at least at the onset of the Spring Training and the regular season. New Manager Manny Acta said this about Logan shortly after the club announced that he would replace Robinson: "Logan played well during the month of September…Nook has a tool that never goes into a slump and that is speed, especially playing in spacious RFK Stadium. This team has not had a reliable center fielder the last three or four years. We are going to give him every opportunity to win the job."

From that, it appears that the club wants Logan to win the job outright with his performance, which does not attenuate my initial thoughts about a center field platoon.

There is no dispute that Logan needs to improve his offensive production, especially his OBP. His exceptional speed, in addition to making him an above-average defensive player, needs to be used on the base paths. Although Acta has admitted that he is not extremely aggressive with base stealing, no one denies that it is far more preferable to have speed on base as opposed to not. Whether or not any offensive improvements warrant a full-time position on the roster remains to be seen.

In addition, Kory Casto has impressed many in the organization, being named the club’s Minor League Player of the Year in two consecutive years. His 2006 numbers at AA Harrisonburg in 489 at bats were .379 /.468 /.272.

However, I think Casto should get ample playing time during Spring Training, but should start out in AAA Columbus. If at any point during the season there is an opening in either LF or CF, he should be called up.

There are many factors that will determine the opening day lineup. Many won’t occur until Spring Training, should the roster remain as it does currently.

However, of all the outfielders, excluding RF Austin Kearns, Ryan Church has had the most consistent success (which is slim in and of itself).

I think that Church’s talent potential, his relatively young age, and his inexpensive contract will make him quite valuable in the months and weeks leading up to the trade deadline of July 31. Church would be an expendable player knowing that Kory Casto would, presumably, improve in the minors. By giving him consistent playing time, his value will be maximized, giving the Nats a better chance of acquiring starting pitching or any other position that needs amelioration.

Obviously, coaches and personnel are going to have a better idea as to how these players fit into the club and its future. But by giving Ryan Church a consistent shot to test his metal, the club will most likely improve an eventual return on its investment.