Washington Nationals Prospectus (as of october 2006)

As the inaugural season for the Washington Nationals drew to a close, many fans were filled with optimism. Although the first-year-Nats finished in last place in the NL East, their 81-81 record exceeded the expectations of most. As such, many viewed the 2006 club as a possible contender for the Wild Card, much as the 2005 team was up until the closing weeks of the season.

However, with the exception of a few players who engrossed fans with their play, this season was a disappointment.

One of the most exciting and hopeful pieces of news came off the field with MLB naming Ted Lerner, with his family and partners, as the autonomous owner of the Nationals. As such the team, which had been led through the dark under MLB ownership under the Expos/2005 Nats, had little to be hopeful for.

As GM of the Expos, Omar Minaya traded away young talent: Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Bay (amongst others). What was once a good farm system became barren under the financial limitations imposed on a club based in Montreal, Canada.

The inheritors of the Nationals were wisely aware of their new team’s limitations. President Stan Kasten, overseer of the Atlanta Braves success, expressed that “pumping” the MLB team with money will not make a long-term, consistent franchise. Instead, money will go towards a “building-up” of the franchise: personal, closer proximity of the AAA affiliate, the creation of a new A affiliate, etc.

What I would like to do is to glance around the diamond and look at what we might see in 2007 and beyond.

Starting Pitching: Starting pitching has hurt the Nationals most this season. Our starting squad has an ERA of 5.35 (second worst in front of the Kansas City Royals). No offense should have that burden.

With Livan Hernandez now in Arizona, our staff lacks a #1 starter. John Patterson will be back next year, as will Brian Lawrence (acquired in the Castilla trade with the Padres). Both Ramon Ortiz and Tony Armas Jr. are free agents after this year, whether or not they return will probably be based on how little money they will accept to return in light of disappointing years (5.40 and 5.22 ERA, respectively).

Those who have been called up from the minors throughout the season: Billy Traber (7.47 ERA), Mike O’Conner (4.72 ERA), and Shawn Hill (4.66 ERA) may still be given a shot to (re)prove themselves during Spring Training. The wonderful performance of Beltran Perez against the Braves recently also suggests that he will be considered for a starting role next season.

The “youngbloods” in the farms system: Colten Willems, Jhonny Nunez, Garret Mock, and Matt Chico (the latter two come from the Hernandez trade with Arizona) will probably not see consistent playing time until 2008.
Relief Pitching: This is one of the few upsides to the future team. With an improved Ryan Wagner, (from the eight-player trade with the Reds) who has changed mechanical foibles sustained in Cincinnati, the bullpen contains Jon Rauch, Saul Rivera, Roy Corcoran, Chris Schroder, Kevin Gryboski, Micah Bowie, Chad Cordero, and Luis Ayala. Rauch, Cordero, Ayala, and Wagner seem to be the more consistent relievers, but promising work by Rivera suggest that one of the better attributes of the club could also improve by next year.

Catcher: Brian Schneider has had a disappointing year. His average fluttered around .220-.230 for most of the season and his slugging percentage (.327) is below his 2005 performance (.409). However, since a post-game “blow-up” about a month or so back, he has brought his average back to .251. Most likely, this season was a “fluke” and we will probably see an improved and more consistent hitter next year.

Brandon Harper has become a promising back-up prospect. His numbers through thirty at-bats (.429 / .633 /.367) suggest consideration as a right-handed backup for the left-handed Schneider. He will most likely receive ample time to further prove himself in the spring.

Robert Fick, the primary backup catcher this season, seems to lack the defensive capabilities that Harper has. In addition, Fick is also a left-handed batter (Schneider usually sits when the team faces a southpaw—one would prefer to be able to send up a right-handed batter in his place, strengthening Harper as the lead candidate).

First Base: Nick Johnson leads the team in OBP (.430). This is his first year where he has not been side tailed with injuries, yielding quality numbers (23 homeruns, 77 RBI, 45 doubles, and 109 walks. His BB total is second only to Barry Bonds in the entire Major League and his 2B total makes him tied for seventh place in the entire Major League). Ideally, Johnson would serve offensive production better as the number two or three batter in the lineup with his high propensity to get on base and accumulate doubles. However, his SLG (.523) and AVG (.292) also make him a candidate to drive in runs, and not just comprise them.

Robert Fick can also play first base, which may be necessary should Johnson remain susceptible to injuries in 2007.

Middle Infield: This is somewhat problematic. The addition of Felipe Lopez, a young player with good batting attributes and speed, was an excellent acquisition. His OBP (.363) is the highest in his career. Lopez is not a “power-guy.” He needs to focus on improving his OBP further and strengthening his base-stealing skills. He very well could be our leadoff hitter in 2007.

Jose Vidro is a veteran of the Expos/Nationals organization. However, his aging knees have resulted in a poorer slugging percentage (under .400 for the first time since 1999) and a hampered range at second. His recent start at first-base suggests that the team might try to shop Vidro as a more flexible defensive player. In addition, his OBP and AVG (.345 and .286) are not poor numbers, which make his marketability slightly higher.

Cristian Guzman had a tremendously poor season last year (OBP / SLG / AVG = .260 /.314 /.219). In addition, Guzman is due to receive 4.2 million, making his marketability via trading very, very bleak. Because of Vidro’s relative healthiness, he is more marketable to trade despite his $7 million due next season, the last year of his contract.

If Guzman were to have a strong year next season, and it is only a possibility, but if so, he might kindle interest for a trade. This might be a way for the Nats to pick up additional young talent for a push for a strong, competitive team by 2008, or 2009 (which is Stan Kasten’s plan). This remains to be seen, however.

The signing of Dominican Esmailyn Gonzalez (16 years) will most likely trickle upwards from the farm system in 2008 or 2009, at the earliest.

Third Base: This is a no-brainer. Ryan Zimmerman leads all rookies in RBI (he will most likely surpass 100 by the season’s end) and is second in hits with runners in scoring position to David Wright of the Mets. His excellent glove and wisdom beyond his years (22 years) makes him a jewel of the organization. It would be foolish, and costly, for the organization to part with this player. With RISP Zimmerman is batting .311.

Outfield: Austin Kearns will most likely remain in RF. The baggage of Jose Guillen has most-likely soured management. In addition, Kearns is relatively young (will be 27 in 2007) and has shown sustained offensive improvement over the past two years.

I think it would be wise to try a batting order of 1) Felipe Lopez 2) Nick Johnson 3) Ryan Zimmerman 4) Austin Kearns

The trade to acquire Nook Logan does strengthen the outfield defensively. However, Logan’s offensive production does raise some concerns. Logan is not a power-hitter. He should utilize his great speed by improving his bunting and his OBP. When on base, he is a nuisance to pitchers. He needs to be on base more often.

I’m assuming that Alfonso Soriano will want about $12-15 million as a free agent. I will also assume that Stan Kasten, despite fan’s fondness for Alfonso, will choose to utilize the money that Soriano cost this year ($10 million) for other purposes (see introductory remarks).

This will leave a hole in LF. In 166 at-bats, Ryan Church has put up improved numbers over last year’s (.348 .453 .266). His power-potential makes me see him as a good number five batter. There are some defensive concerns (hence the trade for Logan in CF), but LF is a far less demanding position (hence Soriano in LF) and I think Church will perform well. In addition, there were reports of interested takers of Church before the September trade deadline. Church may be a very marketable player for an off-season trade.

Since being sent down to AAA, Marlon Byrd has posted good numbers (.363 / .465 / .271). Quite possibly he and Nook Logan will vie for the starting spot in CF next spring, with whoever loses the spot as the back-up outfielder.

Despite the poor performance (the Nationals are the fifth-worst team this year) the organization are in a better stance for the future then they were at the beginning of the 2006 season.

The hiring of Mike Rizzo as assistant GM will bring established scouting and organization to a team that needs it. The previous success of Stan Kasten in Atlanta should bring confidence to fans that we are in good, capable hands.

Over the next few years I believe that the team will improve greatly. It shall be immense fun to watch the process unfold.